Forecasting Covid-19 Trends Utilizing Linear Regression for Predictive Modelling Of Daily Incidence, Mortality and Recovery Rates
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32628/IJSRSET25122182Keywords:
COVID-19, Machine learning, Models, Prediction, Time series forecasting, linear Regression, Database, algorithmAbstract
The dissemination of the Coronavirus across various regions worldwide has led to a substantial number of fatalities and has triggered a decline in the global economy. This situation continues to serve as a significant warning regarding public health and is recognized as one of the major pandemics in the annals of history. The purpose of this project is to offer an in-depth exploration of how different Machine Learning models can be effectively utilized in practical situations. Forecasting techniques based on data analytics have proven their value in predicting perioperative outcomes, which aids in making informed decisions regarding future actions. Regression models in data analysis have been applied in numerous contexts that necessitate the identification and highlighting of adverse factors that pose risks. Several predictive methodologies are primarily utilized to tackle forecasting issues. This research showcases the potential of models to estimate the number of forthcoming COVID-19 patients, which is currently viewed as a significant threat to public health. In particular, linear regression, a standard forecasting model, has been employed in this study to assess the cautionary factors related to COVID-19. The regression analysis models yield three distinct predictions: the anticipated number of new cases, recoveries, and deaths over the next 14 day
Downloads
References
World Health Organization (WHO), “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic,” 2020,https://www.euro.who.int/en/health topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid19/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov.View at: Google Scholar.
World Health Organization (WHO), “WHO coronavirus disease (COVID-19) dashboard,” 2020, https://covid19.who.int/.View at: Google Scholar.
L. Wang, J. Li, S. Guo et al., “Real-time estimation and prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 with patient information based algorithm,” The Science of the Total Environment, vol. 727, Article ID 138394, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
M. Ozaslan, M. Safdar, I. H. Kilic, and R. A. Khailan, “Practical measures to prevent COVID-19: a mini-review,” Journal of Biological Sciences, vol. 20, no. 2, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
M. U. G. Kraemer, C.-H. Yang, B. Gutierrez et al., “The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China,” Science, vol. 368, no. 6490, pp. 493–497, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
W. Preiser, G. van Zyl, and A. Dramowski, “COVID-19: getting ahead of the epidemic curve by early implementation of social distancing,” South African Medical Journal Suid Afrikaanse Tydskrif Vir Geneeskunde, vol. 110, no. 4, p. 12876, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
M. Klompas, “Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): protecting hospitals from the invisible,” Annals of Internal Medicine, vol. 172, no. 9, pp. 619-620, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
J. Pang, M. X. Wang, I. Y. H. Ang et al., “Potential rapid diagnostics, vaccine and therapeutics for 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV): a systematic review,” Journal of Clinical Medicine, vol. 9, no. 3, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
N. Hasan, “A methodological approach for predicting COVID-19 epidemic using EEMDANN hybrid model,” Internet of Things, vol. 11, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
Z. Car, S. Baressi Šegota, N. Anđelić, I. Lorencin, and V. Mrzljak, “Modeling the spread of COVID-19 infection using a multilayer perceptron,” Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, vol. 2020, Article ID 5714714, 10 pages, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
N. Feroze, “Forecasting the patterns of COVID-19 and causal impacts of lockdown in top five affected countries using Bayesian structural time series models,” Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, vol. 140, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
V. Papastefanopoulos, P. Linardatos, and S. Kotsiantis, “COVID-19: a comparison of time series methods to forecast percentage of active cases per population,” Applied Sciences (Switzerland), vol. 10, no. 11, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
R. Salgotra, M. Gandomi, and A. H. Gandomi, “Evolutionary modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic in fifteen most affected countries,” Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, vol. 140, Article ID 110118, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
F. Shahid, A. Zameer, and M. Muneeb, “Predictions for COVID-19 with deep learning models of LSTM, GRU and Bi-LSTM,” Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, vol. 140, Article ID 110212, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
S. Singh, K. S. Parmar, J. Kumar, and S. J. S. Makkhan, “Development of new hybrid model of discrete wavelet decomposition and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in application to one month forecast the casualties cases of COVID-19,” Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, vol. 135, Article ID 109866, 2020.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.